Relationship between Treatment Effects on Progression-Free Survival and Overall Survival in Multiple Myeloma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Published Clinical Trial Data

Background: Demonstrating improved overall survival (OS) with new multiple myeloma (MM) treatments is becoming difficult because of extended survival, so progression-free survival (PFS) is commonly used as a surrogate endpoint for OS. We evaluated PFS as a potential surrogate for OS by examining whether observed treatment effects on PFS are positively associated with treatment effects on OS in MM. Methods: A systematic literature review identified 21 randomized control trials reporting hazard ratios (HRs) for treatment effects on PFS and OS. Pearson's r estimated the relationship between HRs (HRPFS and HROS), and between log-transformed HRs (log(HRPFS) and log(HROS)). R² values were estimated from linear regression models of the HR and the log(HR) relationships. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses examined the robustness of the HR findings. Results: Positive correlations were found between HRPFS and HROS (r = 0.82; p < 0.0001) and between log(HRPFS) and log(HROS) (r = 0.80; p < 0.0001). Linear regression models produced R² values of 0.67 and 0.63 when regressing HROS on HRPFS, and log(HROS) on log(HRPFS), respectively. Sensitivity analyses supported the HR findings. Conclusion: This analysis provides evidence for a positive association between treatment effects on PFS and OS. Studies involving patient level data are necessary to confirm whether PFS is a valid surrogate for OS in MM.