Midlatitude F region peak height changes in response to interplanetary magnetic field conditions and modeling results

The response of the electron density peak height of the F2 region, hmF2, to geomagnetic storms has been investigated and a characteristic behavior of the peak height disturbance in relation to local‐time, season and conditions of the interplanetary magnetic field has been obtained. The experimental results support the storm scenario which the change in the thermospheric wind is the main physical mechanism raising the ionospheric peak height. A real‐time forecasting tool modeling the hmF2 disturbance, ΔhmF2, by analytical time‐dependent functions has been developed. The empirical model predicts ΔhmF2 for latitudes of the Iberian Peninsula with an 86% of success and without false alarms. The behavior of the model fits to the experimental observations at other latitudes and longitudes within Europe which would allow extending its usefulness at wider latitudinal ranges.