Prediction of Radiation-induced Lymphopenia following Exposure of the Thoracic Region and Associated Risk of Infections and Mortality

AIMS: Large blood volumes are irradiated when the heart is exposed to radiation. The mean heart dose (MHD) may be a good surrogate for circulating lymphocytes exposure. We investigated the association between MHD and radiation-induced lymphopenia and explored the impact of the end-of-radiation-therapy (EoRT) lymphocyte count on clinical outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In total, 915 patients were analysed: 303 patients with breast cancer and 612 with intrathoracic tumours: oesophageal cancer (291), non-small cell lung cancer (265) and small cell lung cancer (56). Heart contours were generated using an interactive deep learning delineation process and an individual dose volume histogram for each heart was obtained. A dose volume histogram for the body was extracted from the clinical systems. We compared different models analysing the effect of heart dosimetry on the EoRT lymphocyte count using multivariable linear regression and assessed goodness of fit. We published interactive nomograms for the best models. The association of the degree of EoRT lymphopenia with clinical outcomes (overall survival, cancer treatment failure and infection) was investigated. RESULTS: An increasing low dose bath to the body and MHD were associated with a low EoRT lymphocyte count. The best models for intrathoracic tumours included dosimetric parameters, age, gender, number of fractions, concomitant chemotherapy and pre-treatment lymphocyte count. Models for patients with breast cancer showed no improvement when adding dosimetric variables to the clinical predictors. EoRT lymphopenia grade ≥3 was associated with decreased survival and increased risk of infections among patients with intrathoracic tumours. CONCLUSION: Among patients with intrathoracic tumours, radiation exposure to the heart contributes to lymphopenia and low levels of peripheral lymphocytes after radiotherapy are associated with worse clinical outcomes.