Natural and semi-natural land dynamics under water resource change from 1990 to 2015 in the Tarim Basin, China

The Tarim Basin is a typical arid area and has the world’s most severe desertification of natural and semi-natural land due to limited water resources. However, knowledge about the impacts of changes in water resources on the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural and semi-natural land is still limited. We analyzed the spatio-temporal changes in natural and semi-natural land and the associations with desertification in the Tarim Basin during the period 1990–2015. We then investigated the changes in water resources and the consequent impacts on the spatio-temporal changes of natural and semi-natural land by integrating Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment territorial water storage data and field observations. The results showed that a total area of 10.32 × 10 3 km 2 of natural and semi-natural land was converted to desert during the period 1990–2015. Desert vegetation type and saline type were the natural and semi-natural land types most sensitive to conversion to desert. The area of natural and semi-natural land decreased by 0.83% every year, and the proportion of desertified land was 34.79% on average during the period 2000–2010; this is less than for the period 1990–2000 (1.14% yr −1 and 52.01%) due to increased availability of water resources from the water conveyance program. However, the rate of decrease of natural and semi-natural land area (0.93% yr −1 ) and the proportion of desertified land (58.88%) rose again during the period 2010–2015 due to the rapid decrease in water resources. During the period 2000–2015, the rate of loss of natural and semi-natural land area (7.89%) in the region with decreased water resources was about twice that in the region with increased water resources (3.88%), highlighting the critical role of water resources in maintaining natural and semi-natural land and slowing desertification.