Qualitative policy analysis demonstrates that institutional stagnation stems from geopolitical shifts in the Nile Basin, highlighting the need for adaptive and differentiated governance.
Despite extensive institutional efforts, Nile water governance remains contested, fragmented, and increasingly strained by climate variability, demographic pressure, and geopolitical transformation. This article argues that the challenge facing the Nile Basin is not the absence of governance frameworks, but the need to sharpen existing tools by reassessing their assumptions, limits, and political viability. Using a qualitative analysis of post-1999 developments, the study draws on academic literature, official NBI documents, policy reports, and regional political–economic dynamics up to 2025. Rather than recycling normative prescriptions, such as participation, equity, and benefit-sharing, the article interrogates why these approaches have yielded uneven results in practice. It demonstrates that cooperative stagnation is rooted less in technical design flaws than in shifting power relations, unresolved sovereignty claims, domestic political upheavals, prolonged conflicts, and evolving regional alliances, particularly in Ethiopia, Sudan, and the wider Horn of Africa. Although colonial-era treaties are widely contested, their strategic legacies continue to blunt contemporary governance efforts. Building on this diagnosis, the article advances a recalibrated governance approach that emphasizes adaptive institutional design, differentiated cooperation, and politically feasible benefit-sharing arrangements grounded in current economic interdependencies.
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Awol Ali Mohammed (2026) studied this question.
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