Simulation Study on Peak Path of Tourism Carbon Emissions Introduced by System Dynamics and Panel Threshold Model

The nonlinear processes that influence the carbon emission of a tourism industry are varied, such as economic growth, technology and energy structure and their peaking path and threshold process is not well understood. The paper combines system dynamics and panel threshold models: First, a system dynamics model of tourism carbon emission is developed, which includes economic, energy, carbon sink, and policy subsystems, simulating the changes in carbon emission intensity in the period 2005-2050; second, using a sample of panel data of 30 provinces (2005-2025), a dual threshold model is applied to study the Findings reveal that in the baseline scenario, the peak of carbon emission by tourism will come in (438 million tons); the coefficient of increase of tourism income per capita has two levels: 28,100 yuan and 51,700 yuan, and the coefficient is 0.342 (significant at the 1% level) in the lower section and -0.072 (not significant) in the high section. In the combined scenario, the peak is shifted to 2029 and the peak value is reduced to 343 million tons and carbon emissions in 2050 is 268 million tons and the transportation sector is the sector which has made the greatest reduction in the peak (reducing by 23.4 percent ). System dynamics coupled with threshold model could be an effective way to describe the phased nature and dynamic trajectory of tourism carbon emissions.