Nature-based solutions could reduce potential human‑wildlife conflict expansion in China’s drylands

Human-wildlife conflict in drylands is worsening due to climate change and increasing human pressures, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we present an integrated modeling framework combining system dynamics, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the BIOMOD2 species distribution platform to project future potential conflict trends under three socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Our results show that 23,900 km 2 of drylands are currently potentially affected by spatial overlap with conflict-prone areas, with projections under SSP5-8.5 suggesting that potential conflict areas could nearly double by 2100. Spatial simulations highlight oasis-desert transition zones, particularly near protected areas, as key hotspots where increasing aridity and habitat fragmentation drive heightened resource competition. Our analysis suggests that management aligned with Nature-based Solutions principles—including land-use restrictions, ecological restoration and protected area management—could reduce spatial overlap between human land use and wildlife habitat, supporting biodiversity and sustainable development. These findings underscore the need to integrate such strategies into global sustainability frameworks, like the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, to enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems amid rapid environmental change.