Real estate valuation as a tool in business risk management in conditions of economic instability

The study aims to analyse the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, real estate market dynamics, and the level of NPLs within the Ukrainian banking system in the period 2006–2023, while proposing a comprehensive methodological approach to determining the collateral value of real estate. The research methodology is based on regression and correlation analysis, the results of which indicate that 92.6% of the variance in real estate prices is explained by nominal GDP dynamics and the exchange rate, whereas the NPL ratio is 91.1% dependent on both its inherent persistence and the macroeconomic factors incorporated into the model. The primary methods of expert monetary valuation of real estate—income capitalisation, sales comparison, and the cost approach—are considered. The findings suggest that the integrated application of these three primary valuation methods enhances the accuracy of property appraisals. The originality of the research lies in its holistic analysis of the interplay between macroeconomic factors, real estate pricing, and NPL levels within the Ukrainian banking system. The developed models, characterised by high explanatory power, can serve as tools for forecasting real estate price trends and shifts in credit risk within the banking sector.