Devaluation, Foreign Trade Controls, and Domestic Wheat Prices

The 1970s have seen sharp fluctuations in grain prices. Several plausible explanations for the unusual severity of these ups and downs have been advanced, including devaluation of the dollar for the upswing in 1972–74. U.S. wheat prices for the year of highest prices, 1973–74,are examined. A trade model that distinguishes wheat by country of origin is used to analyze various events in that year. It is concluded that insulating trade policies by wheat exporters and importers had the largest impact on U.S. wheat prices.