An analogue‐dynamical long‐range numerical weather prediction system incorporating historical evolution

It is convenient to regard a predicted dynamical field as a small disturbance superimposed on a historical analogue field. A Statistical technique can then be used in combination with a dynamical forecast. Using this approach, a coupled atmosphere/earth‐surface analogue‐dynamical model has been formulated and applied to seasonal prediction. This approach facilitates the use of information contained both in the historical data‐set and in the initial field in improving the dynamical model (based solely on the latter) and shows some predictive skill.