Simple Predictors of Survival in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic survival rule from easily obtained characteristics of patients undergoing potentially curative resection of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma using classification and regression trees. DESIGN: Inception cohort. SETTING: Tertiary care center. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients undergoing resection lasting at least 2 hours, from July 1993 through June 1997. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Survival, age, TNM tumor stage, functional class, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, and serum albumin concentration were evaluated as predictors. RESULTS: Four hundred six patients were followed up for 5 to 1446 days (median, 391 days), during which time 172 deaths occurred. Median survival was 687 days. Patients with TNM stage I, II, or III squamous cell carcinoma had a mean survival of 1068 days. Patients with TNM stage IV or recurrent disease were further stratified. Those with a serum albumin concentration less than 3.85 g/dL had a median survival of 404 days (95% confidence interval, 286-532 days), and those with an serum albumin concentration of 3.85 g/dL or above had a median survival of 625 days (95% confidence interval, 536-1032 days). A similar survival was found using age younger than 66.5 years as a predictor instead of serum albumin concentration less than 3.85 g/dL. CONCLUSIONS: At our institution, patients with stage I, II, or III squamous cell carcinoma had a mean survival of approximately 3 years. Those with stage IV or recurrent squamous cell carcinoma could be stratified by either serum albumin concentration or by age into 2 groups with a median survival of 1 or 2 years.