Climate predictions for central Kashmir of great Himalayas under different emission scenarios of IPCC

Climate change is likely to impact the distribution of natural resources and food crops by altering their phenology and production. The present study was aimed to generate the future climate projection using daily climate data (Tmax, Tmin and precipitation), GCM data of Hadley Centre Coupled Model and NCEP reanalysis data for calibration and validation of SDSM to define the future climate prediction for the Central Kashmir of Great Himalayas. Daily climate data (Tmax, Tmin and precipitation) was generated from 1961 to 2099 under A2 and B2 scenarios defined by IPCC. Comparison between two emissions scenarios was done to determine the climate change extent in Central Kashmir. The past 30 years observed average temperature and precipitation was 13.24 °C and 824.52 mm, respectively considered as a baseline for comparison purpose. The results under A2 Scenario showed that average temperature and precipitation would increase by 0.18 °C, 243.56 mm (29.54%) during Near Future (2016-2043); 0.32 °C and 259.16 mm (31.43%) during Mid Future (2044-2071) and 0.63 °C and 229.10 mm (27.79%) during Far Future (2072-2099), respectively. Whereas, the results under B2 Scenario showed that average temperature and precipitation would increase by 0.09 °C, 224.67 mm (27.25%) during Near Future (2016-2043); 0.09 °C and 214.47 mm (26.01%) during Mid Future (2044-2071) and 0.14 °C and 243.03 mm (29.48%) during Far Future (2072-2099), respectively. It was concluded that under A2 scenario climate change was quite significant than B2, which is well according to the IPCC high emission (A2 scenario) based on regionally oriented economic development and low emission scenario (B2) based on local environmental sustainability. The study will be beneficial for policymakers to provide proper mitigation plans for natural resources management and food security.