Trade-linked maritime emissions and ammonia fuel transition in the UAE

Maritime trade plays a central role in the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) economy while contributing to global shipping emissions. Using historical bilateral trade data and Multi-Regional Input-Output modeling from the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2024, this study quantifies the UAE’s maritime energy demand and associated CO 2 emissions through 2070. It applies a trade-linked footprint framework that attributes tank-to-wake emissions to UAE-related import and export flows along global routes. In doing so, the study introduces a replicable national-level framework to test the technical-operational feasibility of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s stated ammonia fuel target in international shipping. In 2022, UAE trade-linked shipping emissions were estimated at 7.94 Mt CO 2 , equivalent to about 0.9% of global international shipping emissions. Scenario analysis of the UAE’s ambition to achieve 75% ammonia use in maritime fuel by 2050 shows that this target is difficult to reach under current trends, mainly due to slow fleet turnover, limited deployment of ammonia-ready engines, fuel cost uncertainty, and the pace of bunkering infrastructure roll-out. The findings highlight the need for stronger policy signals, targeted investment in alternative fuels and port infrastructure, and integrated decarbonization strategies aligned with global climate goals.