Using State Transition Models To Explore How the Prevalence of Subtherapeutic Posaconazole Exposures Impacts the Clinical Utility of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring for Posaconazole Tablets and Oral Suspension

< 700 ng/mL) by 25-49%. Predicted reductions in absolute clinical failure rates were 11% in Model 1 and 6.5% in Model 2, and a 12.6% reduction in bIFD in Model 3. With the tablet formulation, maximally-effective TDM interventions reduced subtherapeutic exposures by approximately 5% in all three models and absolute clinical failure rates by 3.9% in Model 1, and 1.6% in Model 2; and a 1.6% reduction in bIFD in Model 3. Our modeling suggests that routine TDM during prophylaxis with posaconazole tablets may have limited clinical utility unless populations with higher prevalence (>10%) of subtherapeutic exposures can be identified based on clinical risk factors.