Can Power-Sharing Reforms Mitigate Subnational Autocratization in Autonomous Regions? Experimental Evidence from Gagauzia

Subnational autocratization presents a significant challenge to liberal democracy, particularly in autonomous minority regions. We explore whether power-sharing institutionalreforms (PSI) foster democratic attitudes among ethnic minorities in autocratizing autonomous regions. Consociational theory suggests PSI alleviate grievances and reduce polarization, thereby strengthening democracy, yet causal evidence remains scarce. Using a pre-registered survey experiment in Gagauzia (Moldova), we test the impact of PSI on democratic attitudes. Our results indicate that while PSI mitigate grievances and polarization, they exert a negative influence on democratic attitudes. Our findings challenge core assumptions of consociationalism and suggest that PSI may yield unintended consequences in the short term.