The advancement of device technology and the growth of the electronics market were intertwined in the past and probably will continue to be in the future. This observation suggests a new approach to predicting the potentials and the limitations of the scaling of MOSFETs using both technological and economic considerations. It is proposed that silicon CMOS technology can serve the electronics needs of at least most of the 21st century. This analysis also provides a backdrop for evaluating the need for unconventional devices. One current effort to develop 25 nm MOSFETs is described. There appear to be many opportunities and challenges in finding novel device structures and new processing techniques, and in understanding the physics of future devices.
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Chenming Hu (1999) studied this question.
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