Space Vehicle Conflict-Avoidance Analysis

The concept of conflict probability, which is used in the aviation community, is proposed for use in space vehicle collision avoidance and collision risk reduction. Instead of a cylindrical conflict volume used by the aviation community, a spherical conflict volume is proposed for the space community. Mathematical techniques needed to implement the method are presented. Analysis of actual space collision events supports the use of conflict probability in identifying high-risk conjunctions. The dependence of conflict risk reduction on the maneuver threshold is found. The associated maneuver rate is also determined. Results are presented for various values of conflict volume radius. The method eliminates uncertainty caused by unreliable space object size data. Space object conflict probabilities are larger than associated collision probabilities and therefore are more easily interpreted.