Reconstructing Kobe: The Geography of Crisis and Opportunity

The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion was established in the wake of the devastating 1995 Hanshin Awaji earthquake with a mission to compile and statistically analyze vast amounts of seismic data in order to make long-range assessments of the likelihood of major earthquakes in the future. The agency has reported that within the next 30 years, the Nankai region has a 60% probability of a magnitude (M) 8.4 earthquake, the Tōnankai region has a 60–70% chance of a M8.1 earthquake, and the Tokyo metropolitan area has a 70% chance of a M7 earthquake. The Tōkai region faces the most alarming odds with an 87% chance of a M8 quake. These predictions of large-scale earthquakes highlight both the need to prepare for post-quake reconstruction and the importance of drawing lessons from past natural disasters. For our modern urban society, the 1995 Hanshin earthquake was a harsh wake-up call that demonstrated the shortcomings of urban planning during the era of rapid economic growth when expediency and cost control took precedence over safety. The field of disaster prevention research is not limited to the physical sciences and engineering. Social scientists’ ‘soft’ research on people and society has become an important part of determining how best to prepare, respond and recover from natural disasters.