Analysis of the Viability of a Giant Panda Population

A model was set up to simulate the dynamics of a giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca population. All parameters in the model were taken from an existing panda population in the Shuidonggou Valley area of the Qinling Mountains, China. 2. The model projects population dynamics and assesses population viability under changing conditions. 3. Small, fragmented populations face potential risks in terms of genetics and demographic processes. This study concerns the latter. 4. The simulation indicated that: (i) the population is stable under present conditions (but note that the model does not incorporate environmental stochasticity); (ii) the environmental carrying capacity is the most important factor restricting population increase; (iii) poaching would greatly affect the probability of population survival; (iv) increasing the survival of individuals under 1 year of age would increase population persistence substantially; (v) reducing subadult female mortality would accelerate population growth; (vi) shortening the interbirth interval would allow more rapid population growth, and its effect is greater than changing other parameters, but may not be practicable; and (vii) immigration and reduction in young male mortality are of limited benefit to this small population but may be important in practical conservation management: 5. The model suggests management strategies for giant panda conservation.