Exploration on the risk factors of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area

OBJECTIVE: To explore the risk factors of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area during a nine-year period of time. METHODS: The incidence and socioeconomic indicators in the 181 counties of Sichuan province from 2004 to 2012 were collected, multilevel extra-Poisson model was performed for variable screening, and Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fitted. RESULTS: The morbidity showed a downward time trend from 2004 to 2012. The spatiotemporal interaction model was applied with the smallest deviance information criterion. The risk factors included: county latitude (0.949, 95%CI 0.765 to 1.098), float proportion (0.368, 95%CI 0.354 to 0.380), per capita GDP (-0.225, 95%CI -0.235 to -0.216), population density (0.072, 95%CI 0.041 to 0.105), and minority inhabited area (0.302, 95%CI 0.241 to 0.372). The variation of posterior median and Bayesian credibility interval was small, and the spatiotemporal patterns were similar among different periods. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence presented a smooth curve without bursting after the earthquake during 2004 to 2012, and with a tendency of decreasing from north to south in Sichuan province; PTB countermeasures should be focused on the migrating population and in the minority inhabited and economic underdeveloped regions. Geographical adjacent structure was an important factor and regional collaborative prevention and control should be strengthened.