Modeling of Rice Production in Punjab using ARIMA Model

Rice is the chief food grain of Indian population. Punjab ranks in the top five rice producing states in the country. Due to increase in demand of rice over the years, the modeling and forecasting of rice production over the years is very important. An Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology has been successful in describing and forecasting the rice production in the past studies. In the present study, ARIMA stochastic modeling is used for describing rice production in Punjab. The yearly rice production data of Punjab from 1960-61 to 1999-2000 has been taken for model building and the data from 2000-01 to 2009-10 has been used for validation of the model. The best model has been selected based on the minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values. It has been found that ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model described the rice production data in Punjab. Modeling of Rice Production in Punjab using ARIMA Model