On the application of some stochastic models to precipitation forecasting

The equivalent of 157 rainfall records for South Africa have been subjected to various statistical modelling techniques. These include: autoregression; multiple linear and trigonometric regression; and exponential smoothing. Between them the models cover short‐ and long‐term forecasting. the trigonometric model provides a useful forecasting aid. Estimation of the parameters in this model stem from the spectra of the raw rainfall data. the models described are limited neither to rainfall nor the area of the globe from which the present data were obtained.