Methodologies for ex ante projections of adoption rates for agbiotech products: Lessons learned from rBST

Pre- and post-release adoption studies for rBST are evaluated for insights into improving ex ante projection methodologies. The conclusion is drawn that user surveys can provide reasonable projections, but the following factors require consideration. The sigmoid curve fits the data well, but the standard experiential learning justification needs reconsideration. Attitudinal variables can enhance the discrimination among users and nonusers, but useful attitudinal questions are not well developed at this point. Rents are a major determinant of use, but projecting rents and shares a priori is a difficult task. Management requirements are a significant factor in use, so that proxies for management quality need improvement. And finally, anti-biotech attitudes can be most effective if products are labeled so that labeling becomes a key element in forecasting use. [EconLit cites: Q160, Q130]