The short-run dynamics of inter-state migration: A space-time economic adjustment model of in-migration to fast growing States

Ballard K. P. and Clark G. L. (1981) The short-run dynamics of inter-state migration: a space-time economic adjustment model of in-migration to fast growing States, Reg. Studies 15, 213–228. Interregional migration is analyzed with respect to its short-run responsiveness to economic fluctuations and its efficiency as a spatial labour market allocation mechanism. Using a space-time analytical framework, in-migration to four fast growing States of the United States is analyzed over the period 1958–1975. It is shown via a time-series model, employing a Koyck-distributed lag methodology, that short-run in-migration is in fact responsive to economic fluctuations. Both employment and turnover variables figure prominently in this regard. By a cross-sectional analysis it is also shown that in-migrants to fast growing States do not necessarily come from depressed or low-growth regions. Thus, interregional migration may not be an efficient allocator of labour across the aggregate spatial system in the short or long run.