Elective affinities: growth models as structured sector–demand configurations

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This article conceptualizes growth models as structured sector–demand configurations, extending existing approaches that focus primarily on aggregate demand components. Using OECD input–output data for thirty-four countries across two periods (1995–2007 and 2009–19), we create new measures of growth contributions by aggregate demand component, sector, and their intersections. Combining comparative mapping of selected countries, principal component analysis, and regression analysis, we identify two dominant demand patterns—domestic demand-led and export-led—and three sectoral patterns, centered on construction and domestic services, high-tech manufacturing, and low-end services. Demand and sectoral patterns are systematically linked: domestic demand-led growth is strongly associated with construction and domestic services, while export-led growth is positively associated with high-tech manufacturing and low-end services—representing “high” and “low” roads to export-led growth—but negatively associated with construction and domestic services. These findings suggest that understanding growth models requires examining the “elective affinities” linking sectors and demand.