An Econometric Analysis of the Old-Age Security Motive for Childbearing

A switching regression for birth interval lengths with endogenous switching is developed to test Mead Cain's contention that parents' fertility decisions arise from lexicographic preferences for old-age security. The model is estimated as a survival model using Malaysian data. Assuming that contraceptors constitute the group of parents who have attained the minimal number of children with which they feel their old-age support is secure, strong support for Cain's concept of old-age security as the principal interest of those parents who have not yet attained a sufficient number of children appears in these data.