The Temporal Relationship Between Police Killings of Civilians and Criminal Homicide: A Refined Version of the Danger-Perception Theory

The connection between police use of deadly force and the criminal homicide rate has long been recognized in the literature. Their temporal relationship, however, has seldom been examined. The present study suggests that earlier research has underestimated the importance of the temporal relationship between the homicides that present the greatest level of public danger and police use of deadly force. This research suggests that police use of deadly force can best be understood through a “ratio-threat” version of the danger-perception theory. Through a time-series analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Supplementary Homicide Reports over a 21-year period, the ratio-threat hypothesis is confirmed. The results suggest that, on a national level, there exists a temporal connection between predatory crime and police use of deadly force. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.