The Lithium Wars: From Kokkola to the Congo for the 500 Mile Battery

This paper presents an analysis and interpretation of the current state of play in the global value network of minerals mining, refining and transformation processes in the contemporary battery industry, which will power potentially crucial future industries for manufacture of electric vehicles (EVs) and solar-storage energy systems. The dark influence of the carbon lock-in landscape is gradually being mitigated under the challenge of achieving the “500 mile” battery charge, which would make a transformational difference in the replacement of renewably fuelled vehicles and storage systems, currently still predominantly driven by fossil fuels. The challenge has led to a “war” between manufacturers, miners and refiners, who have realised that the challenge has come alive while most have been vacillating. At an “individualist” rather than an “institutionalist” level, Elon Musk, for all his faults, deserves credit for “moving the market” in these two important industry sectors. This paper anatomises key events and processes stimulating change in this global economic activity through an “abductive” reasoning model and a qualitative “pattern recognition” methodology that proves valuable in achieving rational, probabilistic forecasts. Established incremental innovation characterises first responses in the “war” but research agencies like ARPA are active in funding research that may produce radical battery innovation in future.