Extreme precipitation trends associated with tropical cyclones in the core of the North American monsoon

We estimate trends of extreme daily precipitation (P95 > 95th percentile) events in the core of the North American monsoon region in Northwest Mexico during JJAS of 1961–1998. The intensity and seasonal contribution of P95 show significant upward linear trends in the mountain sites, which appear to be related to an increased contribution from heavy precipitation derived from tropical cyclones (TCs). Frequency of P95, total monsoon precipitation, and P95 in coastal stations did not change significantly. TC‐derived P95 events are associated with SST anomalies similar to weak La Niña conditions in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, SSTs > 28.5°C in the Caribbean Sea, and strong land‐sea thermal contrast over Northwest Mexico and the U.S. Southwest two weeks prior to their onset.