Does Banning Race-Conscious Affirmative Action Harm Underrepresented Minorities? A Perspective from College Major Choice

This study examines the effects of affirmative action bans on underrepresented minority (URM) students in U.S. higher education. Using state-level variation and a difference-in-differences approach, it estimates the impacts on enrollment, degree completion, and STEM participation. The results show that these bans reduced Black enrollment and bachelor’s degree attainment at four-year institutions, with the largest declines occurring at highly selective institutions. Black representation in STEM fields decreased at highly selective institutions but increased at moderately selective ones. These findings are consistent with the mismatch hypothesis and suggest that institutional selectivity plays an important role in shaping access, persistence, and academic trajectories.