Assessing measurement uncertainty on trihalomethanes prediction through kinetic models in water supply systems

Research Article| November 29 2014 Assessing measurement uncertainty on trihalomethanes prediction through kinetic models in water supply systems Cristiana Di Cristo; Cristiana Di Cristo 1Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, Italy E-mail: dicristo@unicas.it Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Angelo Leopardi; Angelo Leopardi 1Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, Italy Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Giovanni de Marinis Giovanni de Marinis 1Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, Italy Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua (2015) 64 (5): 516–528. https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2014.036 Article history Received: March 20 2014 Accepted: October 21 2014 Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Cite Icon Cite Permissions Search Site Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsThis Journal Search Advanced Search Citation Cristiana Di Cristo, Angelo Leopardi, Giovanni de Marinis; Assessing measurement uncertainty on trihalomethanes prediction through kinetic models in water supply systems. Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua 1 August 2015; 64 (5): 516–528. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2014.036 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex Disinfection of drinking water through chlorine is commonly used in many countries for reducing pathogenic infection problems, but it may pose a risk to human health due to the formation of some by-products, such as trihalomethanes (THMs). For an adequate management of the disinfection process, it is useful to have models capable of simulating THMs concentrations in water supply systems. However, a crucial aspect is the reliability of their performances when used on real systems and the knowledge of the uncertainty of their predictions. The objective of the present paper is to investigate the simulation of THMs formation through calibrated kinetic models, along with the assessment of the measurement uncertainty on the parameters' estimate and on the model predictions. In particular, a first-order, a second-order and a two-phase kinetic model are considered, while the effect of measurement uncertainty is mainly investigated through the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. The analysis performed on a real case study shows that the three considered models have similar performances in terms of predicted concentrations, which suggests using the simplest first-order one. Moreover, the FOSM results reveal that the first-order model is less affected by measurement uncertainty. calibration, chlorine, trihalomethanes, uncertainty, water quality, water supply systems © IWA Publishing 2015 You do not currently have access to this content.