Quantifying the Rhythm of Ice Accumulation in East Antarctica With Varying Temperature

ABSTRACT We present evidence of a strong linkage between temperature and the apparent rate of accumulation of ice at three sites in East Antarctica over the past 800 kiloyears. The conclusions emerge from statistical analysis of an empirical model based on ice core data. The model permits the apparent accumulation rate (AAR) to be tempered by an unspecified thinning process of ice over the ages. It is robust to misspecification of the age scale and does not require the accumulation rate to be delineated from thinning. Records show a 5%–8% increase in the AAR for 1°C rise in temperature. This is consistent with the expected rise in moisture absorption capacity of the atmosphere with a rise in temperature.