Coordinated promotion of agricultural net-zero emission achievement and diversified product supply–demand balance under the new “dual circulation” development pattern of China

In order to address climate change, achieve the “dual carbon” goal, ensure food security and meet people’s increasingly diversified needs, this paper conducts systematic research to explore the relationship among global warming, agricultural net-zero emission achievement (ANZA), diversified product supply–demand balance (ASDB) and technological innovation under the new “dual circulation” development pattern. The results reveal the following: (1) The index for measuring ANZA shows a temporal characteristic of yearly increase and a spatial characteristic of “high in the east and low in the west.” The index for measuring ASDB displays that a temporal characteristic fluctuates greatly and a spatial characteristic of “high in the east and low in the west, with the differences being gradually decreasing.” Between 2012 and 2023, in most years, less than one-third of China’s 30 provinces achieved the “ideal” synergistic relationship, and even fewer provinces achieved the “strict ideal” synergistic relationship. (2) Technological innovation has, respectively, significant inverted “U-shaped” and negative impacts on ANZA in local and adjacent provinces, and significant inverted “U-shaped” and unfavorable effect on ASDB in local and adjacent provinces. The realization of “ideal” and “strict ideal” synergistic relationships have equivalent technological innovation’s interval that ranges from 0.595 to 0.624 in local province but not in adjacent provinces. (3) Technology innovation has a significantly regional heterogeneity, in which China’s eastern region has an optimal range greater than 0.472 for adjacent provinces, while China’s northeastern region has the values greater than 0.045 in local province and greater than 0 for adjacent provinces. Compared with incremental technological innovation, fundamental technological innovation has a greater impact on ANZA and ASDB, but neither of them has the optimal or even reasonable range. Green technology innovation, green low-carbon technology innovation and digital technology innovation play different roles in ANZA and ASDB. (4) Regardless of whether annual average temperature or annual average precipitation is treated as a threshold variable, the impact of technology innovation changes before and after the corresponding threshold value. Technological innovation is an effective path to address the coordinated promotion of ANZA and ASDB under “high carbon emission,” “high temperature” and “high precipitation” conditions.