The problems of prediction and scale in applied ecology: the example of fire as a management tool

Summary Predicting the large‐scale consequences of novel management practices requires that we are able to accurately predict how such management will affect ecological landscapes based on short‐term datasets. In this profile we highlight the lessons learned from four studies into the large‐scale effects of fires as management tools. Ecological interactions are key to understanding the effects of fires. Species respond differentially to processes such as competition and herbivory, as well as to fires. This means that community composition may change substantially with changing frequency of fires. The studies highlighted in this profile reinforce the role of fire in modulating the frequency of invasion of alien species in a range of ecosystem types. In two of the studies, alien species were superior competitors to native ones in the absence of fires, but unable to regenerate following fires. In the future, it will be necessary that the results of short‐term experiments are integrated with long‐term observational data and with theoretical models to predict long‐term dynamics. We discuss how this may be done. Synthesis and applications . The studies of the management of ecosystems using fires as a tool are prime examples of the application of ecology. In addition to measuring the proximate effects of such management using experiments, it is necessary to understand in detail the effects of fire on the underlying interactions between species, and feedbacks between different components of ecosystems.