Mathematical model for pneumonia dynamics with carriers

There are major advances which have been made to understand the epidemiology of infectious diseases. However, more than 2 million children in the developing countries still die from pneumonia each year. The eorts to promptly detect, eectively treat and control the spread of pneumonia is possible if its dynam- ics is understood. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for pneumonia among children under ve years of age. The model is analyzed using the theory of ordinary dierential equations and dynamical systems. We derive the basic re- production number, R0, analyze the stability of equilibrium points and bifurcation analysis. The results of the analysis shows that there exist a locally stable disease free equilibrium point, E f when R0 1.The analysis also shows that there is a possibility of a forward bifurcation.