The Structure and Influencing Mechanisms of the Global Palm Oil Trade: A Complex Network Perspective

Against the backdrop of rapid growth in the food processing and biofuel industries across many countries, the global palm oil market has become a critical component of international agricultural trade. This study analyzes the evolution of the global palm oil trade network using palm oil trade data from 182 countries and identifies the associated influencing mechanisms to ensure the security of the international palm oil supply chain. The main findings are as follows: (1) over the past two decades, the global palm oil trade network has increasingly taken on a single, large-community structure, reflecting trends toward globalization and integration; however, it remains heavily concentrated around two core countries: Malaysia and Indonesia. (2) The degree of connectivity between countries in the global palm oil trade has steadily increased. While Malaysia and Indonesia continue to dominate the network, other communities have progressively shrunk in size. (3) In addition to Malaysia and Indonesia, countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have become key players in the global palm oil trade network. (4) Quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) correlation and regression analyses show that differences in population, geographic distance, and institutional distance have significant and stable negative impacts on trade relationships, whereas the presence of a common language has a positive effect.