What question did this study set out to answer?

Quantify root causes of rail squat defects and establish a predictive statistical framework for evaluating squat risk across international railway networks.

August 19, 2026Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part F Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit

A transnational statistical approach on quantifying root causes of railway squats and predicting squat risk

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Authors

MMMatthias MoserVirtual Vehicle Research GmbH (Austria)NHNikolaus HaselgruberBH Consulting (Ireland)JFJosef FuchsVirtual Vehicle Research GmbH (Austria)

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Implication

Statistical modeling reveals key operational and track drivers of rail squat risk across European rail networks, highlighting opportunities for optimized maintenance.

Key Points

Quantify root causes of rail squat defects and establish a predictive statistical framework for evaluating squat risk across international railway networks.
Utilized a Cox proportional hazards model to assess squat risk using five standard operational and infrastructure parameters.
Evaluated railway infrastructure, operational, and track monitoring datasets across the DACH region (Germany, Austria, and Switzerland).
Straight track segments subjected to low freight shares, low daily axle loads, and hard rail steel grades experienced the highest risk of squat formation.
Predicted squat probabilities varied systematically across national networks, with the Austrian network (OEBB) exhibiting the lowest squat risk and the Swiss network (SBB) exhibiting the highest.

Cite This Study

Moser et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8563c403308d306e2d725d https://doi.org/10.1177/09544097261474761

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Implication

Statistical modeling reveals key operational and track drivers of rail squat risk across European rail networks, highlighting opportunities for optimized maintenance.

A transnational statistical approach on quantifying root causes of railway squats and predicting squat risk

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

A transnational statistical approach on quantifying root causes of railway squats and predicting squat risk

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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