Time-series analysis reveals weak agricultural transmission to economic growth in Nigeria, suggesting macroeconomic instability undermines sector-driven development.
Key Points
To examine the empirical relationship and transmission channels between agricultural sector expansion and aggregate economic growth in Nigeria from 1984 to 2024.
Analyzed national annual time-series data covering a 40-year period (1984–2024).
Estimated a parsimonious autoregressive distributed lag model, specified as ARDL (2,2,1,2,1,2), and performed ARDL bounds tests for long-run cointegration.
The ARDL bounds test demonstrated no evidence of a confirmed long-run cointegrating relationship between agricultural performance and aggregate economic growth.
Short-run dynamics showed exchange rate fluctuations were the only statistically significant drivers, while individual agricultural-sector variables were statistically insignificant.