Self-Organised Criticality in Asymmetric Defence

This study applies self-organised criticality (SOC) theory to analyze organizational vulnerability, resilience, and failure dynamics in the context of the Russia–Ukraine war. The proposed SOC-based framework introduces a quantitative metric—the power-law exponent (α)—to assess the likelihood of systemic failure under sustained stress. Results indicate that highly centralized military structures exhibit greater susceptibility to cascading failures, while distributed and adaptive organizational architectures demonstrate enhanced resilience. The analysis further shows that wartime adaptation reinforces decentralized structures and that both actors strategically synchronize military operations with diplomatic timelines to amplify political effects. By linking complex systems theory with empirical conflict dynamics, the study demonstrates how SOC-informed models can improve asymmetric defence strategies and enable smaller actors to generate disproportionate strategic outcomes. The findings provide implications for NATO force design, defence planning, and resilience-oriented military transformation.