A Rational Model of Regional Rivalry

A rational choice model of the arms acquisitions and alignments of regional rivals is developed that incorporates the restraining effects of economic opportunity costs as well as the political opportunity costs of alignment concessions and dependence on foreign sources of arms. Emphasis is placed on the consequences of substitutability between arms and alignment in the production of security and on the connections between rivalries at the regional and global levels. This model imposes only general qualitative restrictions rather than specific equations, and it encompasses a wide range of behavior, including self-reliance, diversification, dependence, nonalignment, alignment reversals, and a generalized arms-alignment race. The broad scope of this model poses several challenges for future formal and empirical research in this area.