A Model for Predicting Average Fire Engine Travel Times

We propose, motivate, and test a model for predicting ET, the expected fire engine travel time in a region, given the region's area, A; the number of fire engines stationed there, n; the alarm rate, λ; and the expected total service time per alarm, ES. The model is ET = α + β [A/(n − λES)] γ . Estimates of the values of parameters α, β, and γ are given for New York City, where the model has been validated, and used in analyzing fire engine deployment problems. Recent changes in the number and location of fire engines in New York City were based partially on this analysis.