Computer Simulations and Empirical Testing of Sociological Theory

To overcome the longstanding difficulties of testing macrosociological theories empirically, a new strategy based on computer simulations is proposed. The computer model provides a means for testing the empirical adequacy of a theory in its entirety, taking into account all relevant interactions between variables. The authors describe the approach and then apply it to a theory of patterned deviance. Fifteen sets of data were tested with the original model. Nine cases of violation of formal norms and five of informal norms were reproduced successfully. One data set could not be reproduced due to structural limitations of the model. The strategy is then used in simulated experiments to test alternative hypotheses for some of the data sets. The theory's range of applicability is discussed, and directions for further research with this strategy are suggested.