Protectionism of Voters in the Philippines and Thailand: Comparative Approach to the Political Economy of Protection

This paper studies what determines voters’ attitudes toward protectionist trade policy in the Philippines and Thailand. Using cross-country survey data collected in 2020, I estimate determinants of trade barrier preference in these two Southeast Asian nations. Econometric specifications are based on the Heckscher-Ohlin type factor endowment approach and specific-factor models. Empirical results support that the theoretical predictions made by the factor endowment approach are successful in explaining individual-level protectionism in the two countries: Individuals with higher educational attainment prefer higher trade barriers. However, sector-specific interest predicted by the specific-factor model does not empirically explain the voters’ attitudes toward protectionism in these two Southeast Asian nations. This means that in the Philippines and Thailand, long-run determinants suggested by the factor endowment approach are robust channels, while short-run determinants elaborated by the specific-factor model are not. By applying the comparative approach to seven Asia-Pacific nations, I emphasize distinct features in the Philippines and Thailand, such as the positive marginal effect of educational attainment and gender differences.