Correlation regression based forecast of Gazprom PJSC stock quotes

Introduction. A scientific research examining the concern of Gazprom PJSC (a leading Russian energy company) stock quote forecasts is relevant because it could determine investment prospects in the stock market of the Russian Federation. The key idea of this work is to find the most profitable and investable Russian company and outline the factors among many others that affect its stock quotes. Purpose . The author attempts to construct multiple linear regression equations reflecting the impact of the economic factors (the prices of the American natural gas, the USD/RUB currency pair, the M2 monetary aggregate in Russia) on the Gazprom PJSC stock quotes. These multiple linear regression equations are used to develop economic and mathematical models with the projected values of the factors. Materials and Methods . The paper refers to the general and special scientific methods – analysis, synthesis, a monographic method, and statistical methods – graphs, tables, trend spotting, correlation and regression analysis. The choice of independent variables in the correlation and regression analysis was driven by several factors: global natural gas prices determine the fi nancial performance of the Russian energy companies; the revenue of the Russian exporters has long been dependent on the USD/RUB currency pair; security quotes rose at the stock markets due to the monetary policy of central banks which strive to build up the monetary supply. Results. The study developed the equations of multiple linear regressions for the selected four periods with different economic scenarios. This proves the relevancy of the issue under analysis. These equations reflect the dependence of the Gazprom PJSC stock quotes from the prices of the American natural gas, the USD/RUB currency pair, and the money supply in Russia. They could give rise to the economic and mathematical models with the projected values of the analyzed factors and their possible correlations. Conclusion . The economic factors in question could have a positive impact on the Gazprom PJSC stock quotes against a weak Russian ruble and the national energy companies refocusing their attention on other markets. This information could be of use for the economic entities to boost their investment performance.