What did Quebeckers Want? Impact of Question Wording, Constitutional Proposal and Context on Support for Sovereignty, 1976–2008

The idea of sovereignty has been part of Québec's political landscape for more than 45 years, giving rise to two referendums. Throughout this period, pollsters surveyed the population. Using close to 700 polls published since the first election of Parti Québécois in 1976, this article examines how support for sovereignty evolved outside the referendum campaigns and since the last one in the Fall of 1995. Using longitudinal multilevel analysis, it takes into account two levels of explanation: first, the wording of the question, which includes the type of constitutional proposal polled; and second, the passage of time and the events that marked it. This meta-analysis confirms that sovereignty combined with an association with the rest of Canada has always stood apart from more “extreme” constitutional options as having the highest support, and it therefore automatically resurfaced at the start of any referendum campaign. It also confirms that the different events that marked the period only had a temporary effect on support for sovereignty.