Migration diplomacy in times of crisis: how violent conflict dynamics shape migration governance between the EU, Ukraine, and Moldova

Policy responses to Russia’s aggression war by Ukraine, Moldova, and the EU indicate a link between violent conflict dynamics and migration governance in the Eastern Partnership. As this link has largely been neglected in previous research on EU migration diplomacy and external governance, this paper explores the impact of conflict on migration-related negotiations and policy outcomes between the EU, Ukraine, and Moldova from 2009 to 2024. Analysing official documents and interview data, it shows that conflict shapes actors’ approaches to migration in external relations, manifesting in shifting diplomatic interests, strategies, and tools. Conflict escalation, for example, heightens border security as a priority in negotiations, reinforcing the securitisation of migration governance. Besides, actors use people’s mobility to achieve conflict-related objectives, promoting national reintegration or asserting geopolitical interests. These findings further conceptualise migration diplomacy and the role of people’s mobility in governance responses to conflict, identifying avenues for future research.