Predictors of 1-year mortality in patients on prolonged mechanical ventilation after surgery in intensive care unit: a multicenter, retrospective cohort study

Objectives: The requirement of prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is associated with increased medical care demand and expenses, high early and long-term mortality, and worse life quality. However, no study has assessed the prognostic factors associated with 1-year mortality among PMV patients, not less than 21 days after surgery. This study analyzed the predictors of 1-year mortality in patients requiring PMV in intensive care units (ICUs) after surgery. Design: Multicenter, retrospective cohort study Setting: ICUs at 5 tertiary hospitals in Beijing Participants: Patients who required PMV after surgery between January 2007 and June 2016 were enrolled. Interventions: None Measurements and Main Results: Of the 124 patients enrolled, the cumulative 1-year mortality was 74.2% (92/124). From the multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, cancer diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37-3.35; P<0.01), no tracheostomy (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.22-3.30; P<0.01), enteral nutrition intolerance (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.19-2.97; P=0.01), blood platelet count ≤150´10 9 /L (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.14-2.75; P=0.01), requirement of vasopressors (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.13-2.80; P=0.02), and renal replacement therapy (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.01-2.91; P=0.047) on the 21 st day of mechanical ventilation were associated with shortened 1-year survival. Conclusions: For patients who required PMV after surgery, cancer diagnosis, no tracheostomy, enteral nutrition intolerance, blood platelet count ≤150´10 9 /L, vasopressor requirement, and renal replacement therapy on the 21 st day of mechanical ventilation were associated with shortened 1-year survival. The prognosis in PMV patients in ICUs can facilitate the decision-making process of physicians and patients’ family members on treatment schedule.