Macroeconomic analysis reveals corruption exceeds public debt in major European economies, highlighting systemic distortions in capital allocation and productivity.
This article is the first contribution to the Corruption Series, which develops a new paradigm (analytical framework) for the study of corruption based on the analysis and integration of documentation produced by intergovernmental organisations. The article examines corruption as a macroeconomic phenomenon. It brings together major official data on corruption produced or reported by international and European institutions and compares them with public debt in the European Union's four largest economies: Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The comparison shows that the magnitude of corruption exceeds public debt, to the point that, under the scenarios examined, without corruption there would be no public debt. Despite its magnitude and its systemic economic and social consequences, macroeconomic corruption has not been incorporated into economic and political analysis or into the prevailing anti-corruption framework, which continues to address corruption predominantly through individual conduct and offences. The article also considers large-scale econometric evidence showing that corruption distorts the allocation of capital and labour, reduces productivity and prevents the growth of the most efficient firms. It provides the starting point for subsequent articles examining the economic, political, institutional and legal dimensions of corruption.
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Javier Marzal (2026) studied this question.
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