Decision-Oriented Foresight for Transforming Entrepreneurial Ecosystems toward 2040

Objective: This study aims to identify and operationalize the most strategic future scenario for transforming Ecuador’s entrepreneurial ecosystem toward 2040, addressing the gap between high entrepreneurial activity and limited structural transformation through a decision-oriented foresight approach. Originality/Value: The article advances strategic foresight by shifting the focus from scenario construction to scenario selection and commitment. It introduces a transparent and replicable framework that integrates participatory criteria definition and multi-criteria decision analysis to legitimize strategic choice in fragmented and uncertain contexts. Methods: A multi-method design was applied. Causal Layered Analysis was used to construct four alternative future scenarios. A high-competence expert panel was selected using the K coefficient method. Strategic evaluation criteria were prioritized through the Régnier Abacus, and scenarios were ranked using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The selected scenario was operationalized through strategic roadmapping with backcasting to 2040. Results: The results identify a science- and technology-based entrepreneurial ecosystem as the most strategic scenario, achieving the highest global priority by balancing relevance, feasibility, desirability, and transformative capacity. Relevance and feasibility were weighted more strongly than radical disruption. Conclusions: The study shows that ecosystem transformation requires structured mechanisms for collective strategic choice. The proposed framework enhances foresight’s decision value by linking participatory evaluation, consistency, and actionable long-term planning.