The potential for reducing CO₂emissions with modern energy technology: An illustrative scenario for the power sector in China

The case study developed here is a scenario for the power sector of China looking 50 years into the future. The scenario is constructed in such a way that total CO[sub 2] emissions from the power sector are the same in 2039 as in 1989. As the scenario represents a radical departure from present plans, some assumptions may be unrealistic. The exercise is intended, however, not to forecast the future but to explore whether such a goal might be plausibly achievable at acceptable cost. To the extent that the assumptions are plausible and the indicated costs attractive, the analysis can suggest strategies that should be pursued further, both in China, and in the international community that is seeking a basis for cooperative approaches for coping with greenhouse warming and other environmental issues. The scenario combines the following elements: efficient electricity end-use; hydroelectric power; nuclear power; efficient gas turbine technologies fired with natural gas; use of coal-derived hydrogen in fuel cells; and biomass-integrated gasifier/gas turbine technologies. While modern technology is emphasized, the scenario involves only systems that could be commercialized in the 1990s - no long-term technological possibilities are taken into account.